Tag Archives: Science

When Science Looks Like Religion: The theory That Would Not Die.

It is the third book I read about statistics in a short while and it is probably the strangest. After my dear Taleb and his Black Swan, after the more classical Naked Statistics, here is the history of the Bayesian statistics.

mcgrayne_comp2.indd

If you do not know about Bayes, let me just add that I like the beautiful and symmetric formula: [According to wikipedia]
For proposition A and evidence B,
P(A|B) P(B) = P(B|A) P(A)
P(A), the prior, is the initial degree of belief in A.
P(A|B), the posterior, is the degree of belief having accounted for B.
the quotient P(B|A)/P(B) represents the support B provides for A.
Another way of explaining it mathematically is Bayes’ theorem gives the relationship between the probabilities of A and B, P(A) and P(B), and the conditional probabilities of A given B and B given A, P(A|B) and P(B|A).

I was never really comfortable with its applications. I was probably wrong again, given all what I learnt after reading Sharon Bertsch McGrayne’s rich book. But I also understood why I was never comfortable: for three centuries, there’s been a quasi-religious war between Bayesians and Frequentists on how to use probabilities. Are these linked to big, frequent numbers only or can they be applied for rare events? What is the probability of a rare event which may never occur or maybe just once?

[Let me give you a personal example: I am interested in serial entrepreneurship, and did and still do tons of statistics on Stanford-related companies. I have more than 5’000 entrepreneurs, and more than 1’000 are serial. I have results showing that serial entrepeneurs are not on average better than one-time, using frequency and classical methods. But now I should think about using:
P(Success|Serial) = P(Serial|Sucess) P(Success) / P(Serial)
I am not sure what will come out, but I should try!].

If you want a good summary of the book, read the review by Andrew I. Daleby (pdf). McGrayne illustrates the “recent” history of statistics and probabilities through famous (Laplace) and less famous (Bayes) scientists, through famous (the Enigma machine and Alan Turing) and less famous (lost nuclear bombs) stories and it is a fascinating book. I am not convinced it is great at explaining the science, but the story telling is great. Indeed, it may not be about science at all. But about belief as is mentioned in the book: Swinburne inserted personal opinions into both the prior hunch and the supposedly objective data of Bayes’ theorem to conclude that God was more than 50% likely to exist; later Swinburne would figure the probability of Jesus’ resurrection at “something like 97 percent” [Page 177]. It obviously reminded me of Einstein’s famous quote: “God does not play dice with the universe.” This is not directly related but for the second time in my life, I was reading about links between science, probability and religion.

Statistics: Garbage In, Garbage Out?

I have already talked about statistics here, and not in good terms. It was mostly related to Nicholas Nassim Taleb‘s works, The Black Swan and Antifragile. But this does not mean statistics are bad. They may just be dangerous when used stupidly. It is what Charles Wheelan explains among otehr things in Naked Statistics.

nakedstatistics

Naked Statistics belongs to the group of Popular Science. Americans often have a talent to explain science for a general audience. Wheelan has it too. So if you do not know about or hate the concepts of mean/average, standard deviation, probability, regression analysis, and even central limit theorem, you may change your mind after reading his book.

Also you will be explained the Monty Hall problem or equivalent Three Prisoners problem or why it is sometimes better (even if counterintuitive) to change your mind.

Finally Wheelan illustrates why statistics are useless and even dangerous when the data used are badly built or irrelevant (even if the mathematical tools are correctly used!). Just one example in scientific research (which is another topic of concern to me) “This phenomenon can plague even legitimate research. The accepted convention is to reject a hypothesis when we observe something that would happen by chance only 1 in 20 times or less if the hypothesis were true. Of course, if we conduct 20 studies, or if we include 20 junk variables in a single regression equation, then on average, we will get 1 bogus statistically significant finding. The New York Times magazine captured this tension wonderfully in a quotation from Richard Peto, a medical statistician and epidemiologist: “Epidemiology is so beautiful and provides such an important perspective on human life and death, but an incredible amount of rubbish is published”.
Even the results of clinical trials, which are usually randomized experiments and therefore the gold standard of medical research, should be viewed with some skepticism. In 2011, the Wall Street Journal ran a front-page story on what it described as one of the “dirty little secrets” of medical research: “Most results, including those that appear in top-flight peer-reviewed journals, can’t be reproduced. […] If researchers and medical journals pay attention to positive findings and ignore negative findings, then they may well publish the one study that finds a drug effective and ignore the nineteen in which it has no effect. […] On top of that, researchers may have some conscious or unconscious bias, either because of a strongly held prior belief or because a positive finding would be better for their career. (No one ever gets rich or famous by proving what doesn’t cure cancer. […] Dr. Ionnadis [a Greek doctor and epidemiologist] estimates that roughly half of the scientific papers published will eventually turn out to be wrong.”
[Pages 222-223]

When age does not hinder creativity: a rare example in mathematics

I seldom (but sometimes) talk about Science or Mathematics. Mostly when it helps me illustrate what innovation or creativity is about, and sometimes when I see analog crises in all these fields (see for example the posts on Dyson, Thiel or Smolin). And there is another related point: it is often claimed that major scientific discoveries or entrepreneurial ventures are done at a young age.

YitangZhang
Yitang Zhang

You probably never heard of Yitang Zhang who has stunned the world of mathematics last month by proving a centuries-old problem. He is a totally unknown mathematician and more surprising, he is (over) 50-year old. For those interested in the problem, you can read Nature’s First proof that infinitely many prime numbers come in pairs. Basically, Zhang proved that there are infinitely many pairs of primes that are less than N apart. Mathematicians still dream to prove that N is equal to 2 – the twin prime conjecture -, but Zhang was first to prove that N exists … even if N is 70 million!

Imagination/Intuition versus Logic/Reason

As Guillermo Martinez said rightly in one of his essays, “it’s well-known that there is only one more effective way to kill conversation in a waiting room than to open a book, and that is to open a book of mathematics”. Still you may read more than this first sentence!

Even in high tech. innovation and entrepreneurship, the topic of imagination vs. reason, which could be translated by technology push vs. market push, is recurrent. So when I read books about creativity, whether it is scientific or artistic, I am always looking for links with innovation. I had the opportunity to check it again with Guillermo Martinez’s Borges and Mathematics. Borges is probably one of the “poets” who put the most mathematics in his literary work. Guillermo Martinez who is both a novel author and a mathematician has recently published in English this nice little book about Mathematics in Borges’ short stories. I already talked about mathematics in a recent post so let me add here a few things about what I liked.

borges-and-mathematics

Martinez quotes Borges who quotes Poe: “I – naively perhaps – believe Poe’s explanations. I think that the mental process he adduces corresponds to the actual creative process. I’m sure this is how intelligence works: through changes of mind, obstacles, elimination. The complexity of the operation he describes doesn’t bother me; I suspect that the real approach must have been even more complex and much more chaotic and hesitant. All this does not mean to suggest that the arcana of poetic creation were revealed by Poe. In the links, that the writer explores, the conclusion he draws from each premise is logical of course but not the only one necessary.” Borges in The genesis of Poe’s “The Raven”.

And then he adds more about the process of creativity: In the discussion of “divine, winged” intuition versus the prosaic, tortoise pace of logic, I would like to contradict a myth about mathematics: the process Borges describes is exactly the same as what happens in mathematical creation. Let’s consider the mathematician who has to prove a theorem for the first time. Our mathematician sets out to prove a result without even knowing if such a proof really exists. He gropes his way through an unknown world, proving and making mistakes, refining his hypothesis, starting all over again and trying another approach. He too has infinite possibilities within his grasp and with every step he takes. And so each attempt will be logical, but by no means the only one possible. It is like the moves of a chess player. Each of the chess player’s moves conforms to the logic of the game in order to entrap his rival, but none is predetermined. This is the critical step in artistic and mathematical elaboration, and in any imaginative task. I don’t believe there is anything unique to literary creation as far as the duality of imagination/intuition versus logic/reason is concerned.

I strongly believe that innovation is very similar to the process of artistic or scientific creation. But in another essay, Martinez says more about creation: “It’s the same feeling of euphoria you get when, after many years of struggling with your own ignorance, you suddenly understand how to look at something. Everything becomes more beautiful, and you have the feeling you can see farther than before. It’s a glorious moment, but you pay a great price for it, which is your obsession with the problem, like a constant wound or a pebble in your shoe. I wouldn’t recommend that sort of life to anyone. Einstein had a close friend, Michele Besso, with whom he discussed many details of the theory of relativity. But Besso himself never accomplished anything important in science. His wife once asked Einstein why, if in fact her husband was so gifted. “Because he’s a good person!” Einstein replied. And I think it’s true. You have to be a fanatic, an that ruins your life and the lives who are close to you.” Again you might meditate about the high rate of divorce in Silicon Valley and the fanatism creativity requires.

For those really interested in mathematics, I cannot avoid mentioning some other topics Martinez addresses: Gödel’s incompleteness theorem is one of the greatest achievements in mathematics ever, though it is complicated to understand. In a very simplistic ways, even in mathematics, there are things which are true but cannot be proven. Russell’s paradox is nearly as mesmerizing but simple to grab: (From Wikipedia): There are some versions of this paradox that are closer to real-life situations and may be easier to understand for non-logicians. For example, the Barber paradox supposes a barber who shaves all men who do not shave themselves and only men who do not shave themselves. When one thinks about whether the barber should shave himself or not, the paradox begins to emerge. According to naive set theory, any definable collection is a set. Let R be the set of all sets that are not members of themselves. If R qualifies as a member of itself, it would contradict its own definition as a set containing all sets that are not members of themselves. On the other hand, if such a set is not a member of itself, it would qualify as a member of itself by the same definition. This contradiction is Russell’s paradox. Symbolically:

russel-paradox-formula

7 x 7 = (7-1) x (7+1) + 1

Well yesterday I noticed this strange formula. Would it be that 7 is a magic number and I would go from rational to irrational – though start-ups are often irrational aventures too? No: 7 is not alone, the formula applies to 5 [25=24+1], 3 [9=8+1], and so on: 11, 17. So prime numbers? Not even, true for any integer… I felt a little stupid when I found it is just a particular application of a^2 – b^2 = (a-b) x (a +b)!!

I love maths, but maths is not just magical numbers, it’s much broader. And I love to read books on the topic. There is poetry and beauty in math, for sure. To conclude this unusual post, here is a list of books I enjoyed reading in the past. In no particular order, but thematic.

There are still “many” unsolved problems in mathematics. The most famous one is probably proving the Riemann hypothesis. Here are 2 books developing the story:

(Please click on image for a link to the book)

Indeed there is a million-dollar prize offered to 7 such problems by the Clay Institute. And the first solved one is the Poincare Conjecture by Grigori Perelman. Perelman declined the prize but this is another story!

Before the Millenium problems, there were the Hilbert Problems. At the time, the Fermat theorem was probably the most famous challenge!

And as 2 last examples, but I could mention so many more, here are two biographies of extremely strange geniuses, Srinivasa Ramanujan and Paul Erdös

Maybe one day, I’ll be back with more on the topic of math and more broadly about popular science books! Don’t hesitate to give me examples and advice 🙂

NB: if you want to check the French versions, go to the article: https://www.startup-book.com/fr/2012/11/19/7-x-7-7-1-x-71-1/

Freeman Dyson: The Scientist as Rebel

Freeman Dyson is a strange scientific blend of wise and moderate conservatism and pioneer of iconoclasm. He advocates cold analysis but loves what is strange. I just read The Scientist as Rebel, a wonderful book where everyone can find his or her share of intellectual stimulation.

Any relationship with innovation or entrepreneurial high-tech? Very little directly, and the subject is closer to my other articles on the books about reflexions on science (Smolin, Ségalat for example). There are actually many connections between scientific research and technology innovation, not the least being the question of creativity. Another tenuous link: he is the father of Esther Dyson, famous venture-capitalist in Silicon Valley.

Failure is another example. In an interview Dyson gave before writing this book said about its role: “You can’t possibly get a good technology going without an enormous number of failures. It’s a universal rule. If you look at bicycles, there were thousands of weird models built and tried before they found the one that really worked. You could never design a bicycle theoretically. Even now, after we’ve been building them for 100 years, it’s very difficult to understand just why a bicycle works – it’s even difficult to formulate it as a mathematical problem. But just by trial and error, we found out how to do it, and the error was essential. The same is true of airplanes.” From Freeman Dyson’s Brain

The Title “The Scientist as Rebel” also reminds me the quote by Pitch Johnson which I had mentioned in Entrepreneurs and Revolutions: “Entrepreneurs are the revolutionaries of our time.” And he had added: “Democracy works best when there is this kind of turbulence in the society, when those not well-off have a chance to climb the economic ladder by using brains, energy and skills to create new markets or serve existing markets better then their old competitors”

In this book, Dyson writes about ethics, religion, climate change and about scientists as different as Gödel, Erdös, Hardy, Oppenheimer, Feynman of course, Teller the indefensible, and Thomas Gold whom I had never heard of.

The chapter is called “A Modern Heretic.” Gold has covered topics as diverse as
– the physiology of the ear (validated 30 years later despite resistance of many kinds),
– the instability of Earth’s axis of rotation,
– the abiotic origin of natural gas and oil, (i. e. not derived from the degradation of living creatures)
– the existence of life within the Earth’s crust,
– the interpretation of pulsars.
He had no fear of making mistakes on such topics as
– the steady state universe,
– the moon’s surface being covered with a fine rock powder.
Gold was “an intruder but certainly not an ignorant” and added that “science is not fun if the scientist is never wrong.” I just found another blogger article on Gold: The Radical Ideas Of Thomas Gold.

Dyson has written a challenging, exciting book, and I can only encourage its discovery!

The Trouble With…

I just finished reading The Trouble With Physics by Lee Smolin. It is a GREAT book. Now what has this to do with innovation and start-ups? Well I see a link:  In my book I refer to Thomas Kuhn, the author of the “structure of scientific revolutions”. Indeed Innovation and Research have similarities in the way they progress. The specific topic he focuses on is the lack of progress in physics. Don’t we have a similar issue with innovation? I also quoted Pitch Johnson, one of the grandfathers of venture capital who wrote: “Democracy works best when there is this kind of turbulence in the society, when those not well-off have a chance to climb the economic ladder by using brains, energy and skills to create new markets or serve existing markets better then their old competitors.”

thetroublewith.jpg

Smolin considers Science needs two ingredients: ethics and imagination. If the established science and scientists prevent the emergence of young people and new ideas, there might be a crisis. It is what he analyses brilliantly in his book. (By the way, his book tells much more, it is a really great book). When Silicon Valley people such as Joe Costello and Richard Newton claimed that Silicon Valley needs to take more risks and that greed is more important than ethics, I see similarities…